Potential Changes in Climate Regulating Ecosystem Services from Anthropogenic Activities in the Cisadane Watershed, Indonesia

Abstract

Due to increased anthropogenic activity, critical watersheds that exceed their carrying capacity occur in many world regions. The Cisadane watershed experiences changes in land use/cover (LULC) every year, impacting changes in climate regulation ecosystem services, so assessing it is necessary. This study aims to mapping potential changes in climate regulating ecosystem services (carbon storage and sequestration) in Cisadane watershed from LULC caused by anthropogenic activities. The assessment was carried out by integrating several steps: land demand forecasting using Markov chain analysis, LULC simulation using the Multi-Layer Perceptron-Markov chain (MLP-MC) model, and carbon storage estimation using InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) methods in three scenarios, namely business as usual (BAU), protecting paddy fields (PPF), and protecting forest areas (PFA). The results show that the three scenarios presented have different environmental and socio-economic implications, including potential changes in carbon pool and climate mitigation. From the calculation of net present value (NPV) forests have a positive value, so forest protection measures are needed so that future cash flows will be better. These results demonstrate InVEST's capacity to provide information about carbon stocks and sequences that decision-makers and environmental observers can use to manage watersheds sustainably.