Interrelationship between Average Monthly Temperature and the Agricultural Input Price Index in the Republic of Colombia: A Correlation Study

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to establish whether there was a significant linear relationship between the average monthly temperature recorded and the agricultural input price index in Colombia. Using information obtained from secondary sources, including the Official Page of the National Open Data Platform of Colombia, the data on average monthly temperature at the national level and the values of the agricultural input price index of Colombia were reviewed, from January to October 2024. Once collected, the data were analyzed with the RStudio Team statistical program. Spearman correlation test was used to assess the degree of association between the two variables after the Shapiro–Wilk normality test confirmed that the monthly average temperature variable was normally distributed, while the agricultural input price index variable was not. With a correlation coefficient of -0.7939394, indicating a strong negative relationship, the statistics showed a significant linear relationship between the monthly average temperature in the country and the agricultural input price index in Colombia, confirmed by the p-value of 0.009844, which is clearly below the 0.05 significance level. These results allow us to say that, from a practical approach, it is reasonable to maintain that, when the average monthly temperature rises, the agricultural input price index tends to fall, without this meaning that one variable directly causes the other, since many factors can influence this dynamic. Therefore, the need for further research is highlighted to better understand the reasons behind the increase or decrease in the agricultural input price index in Colombia and how climatic conditions may be affecting this phenomenon.