Dynamic Modeling of the Transformation of Wetlands and the Supply of Ecosystem Services in the Face of the Urbanization Process in the Kennedytown

Abstract

The objective of this research was to develop a dynamic model of the transformation of El Burro, La Vaca and El Techo wetlands, and the supply of ecosystem services by the processes of population growth and urban expansion in the Kennedytown. The modeling was carried out using the Vensim PLE ® program; as a result, it was observed that the population for the year 2050 will increase by 161.69% and urban expansion will reach 99.40% of hectares of permitted urban expansion. Additionally, by 2047, the percentage of reduction of the protection areas will be 98.2% and the ecosystem services will be reduced to a total of 0.28 by the year 2044. It was concluded that the environmental sustainability of wetlands is directly affected by the processes of population growth and urbanization and that modeling is a tool for the development of environmental management strategies.